Analyzing the Crime Stats

As the Sheriff’s race has intensified in the weeks leading up to the primary, the four candidates have made crime statistics one of the top issues of the campaign.

Former NYPD Captain Andrew DeStefano asks in his ads, “How Safe Are You?” and lists a series of unnerving statics about an increase in crime in Putnam County in 2008: Burglaries up 43.3 percent, aggravated assaults up 54.5 percent, 17 percent increase in violent crime, and a 34 percent increase in DWIs. In an interview with the Courier, the Democratic candidate for Sheriff, Kevin McConville, the Democratic candidate for Sheriff and former chief of the MTA Police, said, “If you look at Putnam County in the last three years, crime is up 34 percent.”

Sheriff Smith says his opponents are trying to scare the public. “In 2006 we had 25 robberies. In 2007 there were 10 robberies in Putnam County. That means robberies went down 60 percent. The next year, 2008, we went from 10 to 13 robberies. Then they say it is an increase of 40 percent. There has to be ‘truth in lending’ here.”

The candidates have also debated how safe Putnam County is relative to the area. In nearby Rockland county, crime in the past year has jumped 11 percent, making Putnam’s increase in crime look modest. Dutchess county’s overall crime index has seen a modest uptick in crime overall since a 2006 low. Meanwhile, Westchester County has seen steady, though modest, decreases in crime over each of the past four years. The contrast Smith’s critics draw between Putnam and surrounding counties is on the rate of violent crime. Westchester and Dutchess have seen a modest decrease in the rate of violent crime; Putnam stands out in the past year for a modest increase.

“We are the safest county in the Hudson Valley by far,” Sheriff Smith said, “and the second safest in New York, behind Hamilton County, which has more deer than people.” To prove the case, Smith points out that over the past 18 years, the past three years are still among the safest, even with an economic downturn. According to the Index Crimes statistics reported by the New York State Justice Services, the lowest absolute crime rate was in 2007, a rating of 952.8. The next safest year was 2006 954.6. And the third best year was 2008. “People are trying to make the public feel like there is a huge crime wave in Putnam County,” Smith said.

Smith attributes the recent increases in crime rate in part due to the economic downturn that leaves people out of work, along with other factors in surrounding counties. Smith says that these numbers should be read in the context of Putnam’s position in the region. Fully 79 percent of the crime reported in the State of New York outside of New York City occurs in 17 “high impact” counties. Four of those counties—Westchester, Dutchess, Rockland, and Orange—surround Putnam.

“These statistics are slippery things,” Republican candidate Jim Borkowski said. “Don Smith hides behind his statistics. But he is never seen on Main Street in Brewster, he is never seen in downtown Mahopac, where he ignores the issue of criminal illegal aliens.” Borkowski has said in debates that he is afraid to let his own wife or daughter be alone in the village of Brewster, “The big issue is if people feel safer,” Borkowski said in an interview with the Courier; “overwhelmingly they do not. That’s directly attributable to the fact Don Smith is an absentee leader.”

DeStefano says that the perceived uptick in crime reveals that the Sheriff is “following policing models that are outdated.” The former NYPD Captain says that “you can fight crime by tracking crime stats. Police departments watch each other. If crime was really down almost 20 percent, as the Sheriff says, people would be coming from all over the world to see how he did it. They’re not.”

Smith attributes the criticism of his terms as Sheriff to the demands of campaigning for a job. During his two terms in office, he says, the overall number of crimes has been reduced 18.9 percent, even as the population of Putnam County increased. The crime rate has dropped 21.5 percent. “The question is which county is the safest in the Hudson Valley, and we’re still number one” said Smith.