One Year Out, Ball and Hall in Tight Race

The 99th district’s Assemblyman is brimming with confidence. “If the [Congressional] election were held on Election Day this year, I believe we would have won with a majority because of the high turnout of Republicans,” said Greg Ball.

The Ball campaign to unseat Congressman John Hall, already six months old and with a year to go, has released internal polling data, showing the upstart Assemblyman within striking distance of the incumbent. The October 21-22 poll of 290 likely general election voters in Putnam, Westchester, and Dutchess showed Ball at 43 percent, and incumbent Congressman John Hall at 48 percent, within the 5.7 percent margin of error.

The poll was conducted by Vitale and Associates at the Ball campaign’s request to survey voter attitudes one year before the election. Perhaps more important than the closeness of the race, the campaign-sponsored poll shows that Hall, a well-funded incumbent, has less than 50 percent support in the parts of the district where he has performed best in his two successful campaigns.

“His voting record is an albatross,” said Ball of his rival. “It’s a shame he hasn’t been able to exercise independent leadership for his constituents.”

Ball said that constituents in the 19th district are motivated by kitchen-table issues. “The overarching theme of my campaign is that this is the first generation of grandparents that believe their grandchildren will not have a better standard of living,” Ball said. “We need someone who will fight for the interests of middle- and working-class people.”

In an interview with the Courier, Ball connected his populist brand of Republicanism to Independent candidacies of the past. “In 1992, when Ross Perot talked about the debt, and the giant sucking sound, and foreign countries holding the bag on generations of future debt, a lot of people didn’t understand the immediate impact,” Ball said. “Independent Republicans and Democrats know that government cannot continue to spend this way.”

It is common practice for campaigns to conduct surveys of likely voters to gauge their attitudes about different candidates and issues, and then release those polls when the results are favorable. The Vitale and Associates study shows that 89 percent of likely voters in the polled portion of the 19th district do not recognize the name of Ball’s likely primary challenger, Mt. Kisco ophthalmologist, Nan Hayworth.”

The poll shows that Ball is strongest in his home county of Putnam, where he leads Hall by 20 percentage points. He has a more modest 4 point advantage in Dutchess County. Critically, the poll shows Ball scoring well against Hall among independents (48 to 38 percent), who have made the difference in elections in Westchester and throughout the tri-state area in 2009.

Such polls are occasionally used to freeze out competition. The press release accompanying the poll quoted Todd Vitale, who runs the consulting firm that conducted the survey. “For example, Sue Kelly is now known by less than 75 percent of the voters in these counties,” Vitale said. “And, fully 89 percent of likely voters in this portion of CD 19 have never heard of Nan Hayworth, and similarly, 78 percent have never heard of George Oros.”

“In this particular case, we did not include the parts of Orange and Rockland,” said, Vitale in an interview with the COURIER, adding that “the poll reflects two thirds of the district, and represents the counties proportionally, and— given the strong Republican registration in Rockland—this poll is very encouraging.”

While the 19th is not the most volatile Congressional district in New York, publications like Roll Call, Congressional Quarterly, and the Cook Political Report rank it as vulnerable for a switch in 2010. Though Hall is well-funded, Ball’s campaign has been gaining traction in national media and attracting positive coverage in conservative outlets like The American Spectator and National Review.

Ball attributes his early success to his message and the mood of the electorate. “Americans want their country back, they want to leave the next generation a better standard of living,” Ball said.